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What’s Wrong With A Positive Progression?
by Rob Singer
Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Rob Singer There have been numerous criticisms over the past 10 years about how my basic Single-Play Strategy as well as Romp-Thru-Town and Advanced-Romp-Thru-Town strategies are not much different than playing a Martingale type strategy on the video poker machines. But you know what? That’s simply the frustration oozing out of the critics, because they just can’t seem to get their hands completely around ANY of my strategies without first coming apart at the seams.

Martingale rightfully gets blasted by any knowledgeable gambler because of its limitations, and even if the player has the required huge bankroll there’s never a guarantee it won’t be “lights out” before he reaches his end. The Singer strategies are quite different. There’s no doubling up on losing bets, there’s never been a requirement to play a denomination that’s beyond limits of the house OR the player, and one single winning hand can send the player home in glorious victory. Martingale could never do that.

What my strategies are can be identified more closely to being a negative progression than anything else. And although there are plenty of math models out there which show how such a progression should end up a loser over time, I felt it was a good place to start when developing my method of professional play.

The problem that’s often brought out about negative progressions is, when a player chases his losses he at times will run into the proverbial brick wall and the end of his bankroll - with or without previous wins or jackpots. And, of course, that is true...to a point. In order to be able to play this strategy successful on a consistent basis – and to have the occasional huge jackpot win amounts far surpass the infrequent large losses while keeping the value of the many smaller wins - mathematical as well as strategic changes had to be made. The trick was to keep my play ONLY as a short-term effort - each and every time I played, while structuring my play around very strict and reasonable win & loss goals – and to incorporate certain deviations from expert play (about 5% of the hands played) only after undergoing extensive risk analyses that gave away small amounts of EV in exchange for the opportunity of hitting exceedingly large winners.

Of course, being able to WIN is a far cry from being a WINNER. In order to do the latter, you MUST be capable of doing what you say you are going to do, and you MUST learn the very difficult trait of becoming exceptionally disciplined in everything related to being inside casinos. And while most players look at that and say to themselves how they can learn it well because they’ve done this or that difficult task in their lifetime, they quickly and unfortunately discover that it takes a special type of person to actually DO these things successfully while involved in gambling. In other words, without a total commitment and the extreme motivation to do it 100% right, the player will never get beyond being a strong recreational video poker player – which almost always equates to being a “friend” of the casinos.

That’s how it’s done folks...that’s really all it takes to be like me. You have to enjoy winning without forgetting what you said you would do with those winnings prior to walking inside the casino, you have to have the stomach for the obligatory peaks and valleys that always seem to be present, while being able to walk away after losing a pre-set goal, you have to understand how it is only through good luck that you will win any session, and you must comprehend that you’re #1 goal when stepping inside any casino is to get out ASAP. But many people, even after taking in all this, still wonder why a positive progression isn’t the best way to go.

My strategy, as previously mentioned, increases in denomination after X amount of credits are lost. A positive progression increases denomination after a WIN. So what’s wrong with that, and why didn’t I use that as the baseline for my play strategies?

The answer is simple. Try understanding it this way: When you’re playing quarters and have played for a long, long time between royals, exactly how do you feel after hitting one – let’s say it’s a progressive @ $2250? Correct – you’re on cloud #9 and feeling as confident as could be. And guess what? That’s EXACTLY how the casino WANTS you to feel! As they’re hand-paying you, they want you to look at them as being your friends! Of course, one reason is to hand them a tip (which you should NEVER, EVER do on handpays, at the cashier, or in any other financial transaction inside casinos) but the underlying reason is because they really, REALLY want you to continue playing in order that they have a chance of getting it all back. Sounds simple, right?

So what do the majority of jackpot winners do? Well, let’s use an example from one of the game’s most prolific players – Bob Dancer. One evening he was playing a $25 machine with his wife at the MGM and they hit a $100,000 royal. I believe he said he was up around $85,000 at that point, which if that were me would have meant I’d be on my horse headed back to Arizona in a flash as a huge winner for the trip. But he’s not me. They immediately turned around and played a $100 machine – giving it what he called a “pot shot” from his book “Million Dollar Video Poker”. What’s a pot shot? He described it as playing over your head without the proper bankroll, hoping to get another lucky hit out of sheer luck.

And that’s exactly what they did..to the tune of $400,000 with another royal. So what do we know about this type behavior? First, although he didn’t address this issue for obvious reasons, it is inevitable that they would have gone home broke and busted out if that or another royal did not appear. Which, of course, is what OVERWHELMINGLY would happen almost every time. And, while he has NEVER written about or admitted to anything beyond that, what do you think the chances are that he does this type thing over and over again – regardless of the denominations? Is it beginning to make sense to you now why the guy keeps on working while purporting to be a winning video poker player? I understood all this long ago.

In other words, players who go UP in denomination after winning are really playing right into the casino’s hands. How many times do you see me write that a player can only win consistently if he or she does exactly the opposite of what the casino wants or expects you to do on a regular basis? Going up in denomination means a player is addicted to the game in a bad way, and they just can’t get their thrills from going down in denomination or playing the same denomination as via their latest winner.

It’s simple stuff folks, and because of its simplicity (although certainly including intense requirements throughout) I’m sure it’s easier to VISUALIZE how I’ve been able to be a winner over actually doing it yourself. But it’s not out of reach. The first step is to recognize how NOT to play. That’s an absolute necessity, and is what my first book “The Undeniable Truth About Video Poker” was based on. My final book, which I’ve just begun writing, will focus more on how to win, because that’s what I’ve already done. The steps are all right here in this article.

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