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A Trip To Las Vegas Without A Strategy? Not So Fast.
by Rob Singer
Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Rob Singer There was a time from 1990-1996 when I went to LV with only one thing in mind: Advantage Play only on >100% machines. That was my game, my slot club card was too important for words, and that was my strategy. But as every advantage player always discovers sooner or later, optimal play strategy is nothing more than a confused state of mind. And if they are able to somehow keep an open mind, they will eventually discover that the casinos not only had a big hand in developing these AP’s – they basically control them on a 24/7 basis. No, there’s no need to go beyond the customary snicker or chuckle whenever you see rope-‘em-in signs advertising “multiple points days” or “free logo jacket giveaways” that seem to send a tingle up the leg of every local AP. Rather, saying a prayer or two for these misled souls could be just what they need...and have likely needed for far too long a time.

Over the years since developing my own play strategies, I rarely have taken trips to Nevada without both a planned strategy as well as a win goal in mind. The casinos have such a big edge over all gamblers that it’s imperative we go in with a firm and well thought out plan. And that’s exactly what I have done more than 99% of the time. Yet on my latest trip, I brought the hefty bankroll, I had plenty of time, but I just didn’t feel like playing any of my normal RTT or ARTT sessions.

So what did I do instead? Well, I had the usual array of free-play and stay offers, which are always profitable for me because I normally play it through just once and cash out. This time I put a few players up at the Paris hotel for three nights and I gave a friend a room at Sam’s Town while I stayed in a suite at South Point – apparently a reward for my playing 16 sessions 25c thru $2 netting a good sized win, with this site’s webmaster a few months ago. All my meals were at Billy Bob’s Steakhouse at Sam’s Town because of the RFB offer.

As I said in my recent e-newsletter, I cashed out a win of over $300 at the Edgewater in Laughlin, then just over $100 next door at Aquarius after running through my $50 in free-play. Sam’s Town also gave me $150 cash for visiting and scattered play turned that into about $250. The only other play I had over the weekend was on two occasions: first, while I was doing 7000 more hands of 5th card flip-over testing, I decided this time to play 25c @ 5 credits, and I lost about $300 in the process; and, just before a pre-set meeting Sunday morning at Red Rock I sat at a bar and played $2 BP (with a 6/5 pay table) and was dealt a straight flush for a $355 profit. More on the testing and my meeting in a few moments.

As you can guess, my play was very limited, on the low-end considering I had about $13,000 on me, but I’ll take the $700 in net profit from a trip like this every time. Sure that’s not much, but as I tell everyone I meet with, it’s far better than losing even $10. And what about not playing much and therefore, the probability of being shunned for offers in the near future? Haha! They (the casinos) haven’t cut back this year yet, and if & when they do I’ll not care one bit. But from the looks of things, with offers right through November so far and with over $1400 in free-play attached to them, I don’t think I’ll see anything dry up until the New Year begins---if that!

I did multiple training sessions during this trip, and all but one turned out successful. In that one case, however, the player wasn’t there to play any of my strategies fully through, and instead opted to learn my basic special play holds as he played mostly 25c & 50c BP at South Point on double points day.

For my monotonous 5th card flip-over testing: I played at Sam’s Town, some at the Eastside Cannery (because of the newer type machines like the ones at the M) and the rest at South Point. In summary, in just under 7000 hands I had 804 opportunities. The majority of the opportunities were at Sam’s Town, where the result was 18%. I had 100 opportunities at the Eastside Cannery and I experienced a flip-over just one time. But on just over 100 opportunities at South Point the rate was right at 33%. This bring my overall flip-over rate down to about 35%, and for the sticklers, I’m not looking up exact numbers because that’s not what this reporting is about. It’s clear that cards flipping over to the exact value/different suit is happening at a much higher rate than the math says it will assuming the machines operate 100% randomly – which I have no doubt they do not.

Typically, I would have left for home around 2am Sunday morning because of the traffic going to Phoenix. On those roads, everyone’s always in a hurry to GET to Nevada casinos on Fridays, then on Sundays they’re in a hurry to GET HOME after they’ve lost their butts. I try not to be a part of that crowd as much as possible, and I usually am not. But this day I had set a meeting with the Wizard of Odds – Michael Shackleford – Sunday morning at 11 at Red Rock, which turned out to be a pleasant experience, being that he’s always been extremely critical of my approach to the game and my overall views.

We spent about a half hour chatting and a half hour with him playing 50-play pennies to see if he understood what my 5th card flip-over testing was all about. It was an informal test, and since I have never looked at multi-play games I could not apply this session to any of my previous findings – regardless of what the results would be. Turns out we didn’t play very many deals and I believe the results were a bit on the low side anyway.

After meeting with the Wizard, my general overall view of him is favorable. We got along well for being sort of adversaries, he like me is a family guy and has 3 children, he makes his living in the casino business as a consultant and thru various web sites, and he does well at sports betting. I don’t believe he thought too much of me prior to our meeting, but after inquiring about my educational and work background – which is enormously different than his – there’s no doubt he had a more positive opinion. Either way, it was a problem-free chat and I think we’d both do it again.

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